Sunday, 16 March 2014

Food-for-Thought: What's the Probably of finding the missing plane?

The following is reported in online Straits Times today (16 March).
Click HERE to read the report and to access the dynamic graphic to have a visual sense on the size.

With the possibility that the MH370 is hijacked, based on the amount of fuel that the missing plane carried with it, the airports that the plane could possibility had landed are identified (in the map shown). According to WNYC, the missing plane could have landed in 634 runways in 26 different countries.

Now, are you able to tell the likelihood, that is, the chances that you will find the plane if you just pick any of these airports? Mathematically, it's possible to have equal chances of finding it in any airport, based on ideal situation. However, the chances of finding the planes in all airport vary now. Why?



2 comments:

  1. because they have already checked a few airports :P

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    Replies
    1. Jerry:

      So, are you suggesting that the probability of finding the plane increases as we eliminate those that were already checked?
      Thanks for offering this interesting perspective :)

      How about consider the probability of finding the plane at the start of the 'plane-hunt' mission? Did all airports start with equal footing?
      Is the probability higher/ lower in some airports (even before the search started)? What are some possible reasons to account for this 'unevenness'?

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